El Niño Tracker integrates three complementary tiers of numerical modeling: atmospheric Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), continental river basin hydrology, and seasonal ocean-atmosphere climate ensembles.
1. Atmospheric Weather Prediction Models (NWP)
To provide accurate local weather and precipitation forecasts worldwide, our platform leverages the Open-Meteo multi-model ensemble system, which selects the optimal "best-match" model based on geographic region:
- ECMWF IFS (Integrated Forecasting System): Widely recognized as the world’s leading global medium-range numerical weather model, operating at 9 km spatial resolution.
- NOAA GFS (Global Forecast System): The flagship American operational model, computing global forecasts at 13 km resolution.
- DWD ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic): The German Meteorological Service’s advanced model, known for its triangular grid architecture and precision convective parameterization.
- Météo-France ARPEGE & AROME: High-resolution European regional models capturing intricate topography and coastal sea breezes.
- JMA GSM: Japan Meteorological Agency’s operational global spectral model, offering exceptional precision across the Asia-Pacific region.
2. Continental River Hydrology: GloFAS v4
Forecasting river discharge requires modeling what happens to precipitation once it strikes the ground. We utilize the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), developed by the European Commission and ECMWF as part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS).
GloFAS couples surface runoff from numerical weather forecasts with the LISFLOOD hydrological model across a 0.05° (~5 km) global river grid, simulating water flow through tens of thousands of river networks.
3. Seasonal ENSO Climate Models
To project multi-month Pacific sea surface temperatures, forecasters utilize large coupled ocean-atmosphere ensembles:
- NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble): A collaborative multi-agency system combining models from NOAA NCEP, NASA, NCAR, and Canadian meteorological centres.
- ECMWF SEAS5: A 51-member ensemble simulating coupled ocean dynamics out to seven months.
- BOM ACCESS-S: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s coupled climate model, optimized for Indo-Pacific teleconnections.