Kenya
Sensitive Rain Seasons
- Short rains (October–December): Strongly correlated with El Niño; historic warm events have produced devastating river overflows, mudslides, and lake level rises.
- Long rains (March–May): Primary agricultural rainfall season; teleconnection to ENSO is variable, but spring following strong El Niño often sees lingering precipitation anomalies.
Primary Environmental Hazards
- • Elevated flood frequency along major river basins (Tana, Athi, Nyando, Nzoia)
- • Severe flash flooding in urban centres including Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu
- • Increased risk of waterborne diseases, malaria epidemics, and livestock Rift Valley fever
- • Extensive transport disruptions, bridge washouts, and agricultural acreage submersion
- • Short-term pasture replenishment in arid northern and eastern rangelands
Current 2026–27 El Niño Context for Kenya
With CPC indicating a strong El Niño advisory and high probabilities of a historically intense event for fall/winter 2026–27, Kenya faces elevated riverine flood and flash flood risk across both the coastal belt and western lake basins during the short rains.
Major Monitored River Basins in Kenya
Tana River Basin
0.45° S, 39.65° EKenya's largest basin; critical downstream flood monitoring point at Garissa.
Nzoia River Basin
0.13° N, 34.02° EWestern drainage into Lake Victoria; historic inundation corridor at Budalangi.
Nyando River Basin
0.17° S, 34.92° EProne to severe backwater pooling and flash runoff affecting Ahero plains and Kisumu.
Athi-Galana-Sabaki Basin
3.18° S, 40.12° EDrains Nairobi and southern highlands out to Malindi; rapid runoff surges during storms.
Monitored Cities in Kenya
Select any city below for real-time temperature, 7-day rainfall forecasts, and live flood risk score:
Nairobi
1.3° S, 36.8° EMombasa
4.0° S, 39.7° EKisumu
0.1° S, 34.8° EGarissa
0.5° S, 39.6° ENakuru
0.3° S, 36.1° EEldoret
0.5° N, 35.3° ERuiru
1.1° S, 37.0° EMalindi
3.2° S, 40.1° EHistorical El Niño Events in Kenya
1997–98 Event
Catastrophic floods caused widespread infrastructure collapse, prolonged cholera outbreaks, and submerged thousands of square kilometres across the lower Tana.
2015–16 Event
Enhanced rainfall led to significant river swelling and localized landslides in the central highlands.
2023–24 Event
Heavy rainfall following severe drought displaced hundreds of thousands and filled hydroelectric reservoirs to maximum capacity.