The 2026 El Niño has developed with remarkable velocity, evolving from neutral conditions in early spring to widespread equatorial warming that now challenges historical benchmark events.
Development and Trajectory of the 2026 Event
Early 2026 began in an ENSO-neutral state following the dissipation of previous Pacific cycles. By May 2026, energetic westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific initiated deep downwelling oceanic Kelvin waves, rapidly depressing the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific.
Through the boreal summer, sea surface temperature anomalies accelerated across Niño 1+2 and Niño 3.4 zones. By autumn 2026, NOAA CPC confirmed an official El Niño Advisory, indicating high confidence in a very strong event persisting through fall and winter 2026–27.
El Niño Advisory
+3.2 °C
El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
Historical Comparisons: Is 2026 an "Extreme" Event?
Modern climate monitoring compares events using both the traditional Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and the Relative ONI (RONI), which adjusts for background tropical warming. CPC outlooks cite a substantial probability that the October–December 2026 peak will rank among the strongest warm events since 1950, competing with the benchmark super-events of 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16.
| Niño Region | Coordinates | SST (°C) | SST Anomaly | Thermal Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niño 1+2 | 0°–10°S, 90°W–80°W | 26.1 °C | +5.3 °C | Extreme Coastal Warming |
| Niño 3 | 5°N–5°S, 150°W–90°W | 29.0 °C | +4.0 °C | Very Strong |
| Niño 3.4 (Standard) | 5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W | 29.9 °C | +3.2 °C | Very Strong El Niño |
| Niño 4 | 5°N–5°S, 160°E–150°W | 29.9 °C | +1.2 °C | Moderate Warmth |
Centered on week 30SEP2026. Data: NOAA CPC OISSTv2.1.
Key Regional Hazards for Late 2026
- East Africa (October–December Short Rains): Extreme flood risk along the Tana, Nyando, and Nzoia basins in Kenya and the Shabelle in Somalia.
- South American Pacific Coast: Severe risk of desert torrents and mudslides in northern Peru and coastal Ecuador heading into early 2027.
- Southern Africa & Zimbabwe: Stressed summer crop planting and developing agricultural drought across South Africa and Zimbabwe.
- Australia & Southeast Asia: Below-average rainfall, elevated heat, and heightened wildfire risks in eastern Australia and Indonesia.
Track Live Conditions Across Countries
Explore real-time data across monitored countries as the 2026 event peaks:
Kenya
East AfricaKenya experiences heightened rainfall and heightened flood hazards during El Niño events, particularly during the October–December short rains season. Teleconnections are intensified when positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) anomalies coincide with Pacific warming.
Uganda
East AfricaUganda is situated in the Lake Victoria basin, where El Niño typically enhances late-year rainfall, raising water levels and causing landslides in mountainous eastern regions.
Tanzania
East AfricaTanzania experiences elevated rainfall across its northern bimodal zones and coastal strip during El Niño, while central and southern unimodal regions occasionally face erratic distribution.
Ethiopia
Horn of AfricaEl Niño typically suppresses the vital Kiremt summer rains in the Ethiopian highlands, leading to drought, while conversely stimulating heavy late-year rains and flash floods in southeastern pastoralist lowlands (Somali Region).
Somalia
Horn of AfricaSomalia is among the most vulnerable nations to El Niño: while pastoral areas suffer in dry phases, strong El Niño events historically deliver devastating deluges along the Juba and Shabelle rivers.
South Africa
Southern AfricaEl Niño typically brings hot, dry conditions and agricultural drought to the summer rainfall regions of South Africa, depressing maize yields and stressing municipal water supplies.
Zimbabwe
Southern AfricaZimbabwe is exceptionally sensitive to El Niño: summer rainfall (November–March) is consistently suppressed, resulting in widespread crop failure, water shortages, and low Kariba hydropower generation.
Mozambique
Southern AfricaMozambique experiences a marked north-south divergence during El Niño: southern and central provinces frequently suffer from drought, while northern river basins can experience erratic, intense storm runoff.
India
South AsiaEl Niño has a historically strong correlation with deficient Indian Southwest Monsoon rainfall (June–September), frequently resulting in agricultural drought, though positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events can moderate its impact.
Indonesia
Southeast AsiaIndonesia sits at the western pole of the Pacific Walker Circulation. El Niño shifts ascending atmospheric motion eastward, causing suppressed rainfall, severe drought, and catastrophic peatland and forest fires.
Philippines
Southeast AsiaThe Philippines suffers from severe rainfall deficits, extended dry spells, and reservoir depletion during El Niño. Typhoon tracks also tend to form further east in the Pacific and recurve northward.
Australia
OceaniaEl Niño typically brings reduced winter and spring rainfall across eastern and northern Australia, warmer daytime temperatures, reduced tropical cyclone activity, and increased bushfire risk.
Japan
East AsiaDuring El Niño, Japan frequently experiences milder winter temperatures and a tendency toward cloudier, cooler summers. The East Asian winter monsoon is generally weakened.
Peru
South AmericaPeru is the epicentre of El Niño's historical discovery. Strong warming in Niño 1+2 waters collapses the Humboldt Current upwelling, disrupts the world's largest anchovy fishery, and triggers catastrophic desert downpours (huaycos) along the hyper-arid northern coast.
Ecuador
South AmericaEcuador's coastal plain and Galápagos Islands are exceptionally vulnerable to El Niño. Abnormal sea surface temperatures off the coast unleash heavy rain, triggering coastal river basin floods and extensive banana, shrimp, and cacao crop destruction.
Brazil
South AmericaBrazil exhibits a stark continental contrast during El Niño: northern and northeastern regions (including the Amazon and Sertão) suffer from severe drought and fires, while southern Brazil experiences excessive rainfall and catastrophic river flooding.
Colombia
South AmericaColombia is typically characterized by suppressed rainfall, higher temperatures, and agricultural drought during El Niño, leading to stressed hydroelectric reservoirs (which supply ~70% of national power) and wildfire outbreaks.
Argentina
South AmericaArgentina experiences enhanced spring and summer precipitation across the fertile Pampas, Mesopotamia, and northeast during El Niño, supporting bumper crop yields but creating significant river flood risks along the Paraná and Uruguay basins.
Mexico
North AmericaEl Niño impacts Mexico through a split pattern: winter precipitation is typically enhanced across northern desert and border states due to an intensified subtropical jet stream, while summer monsoon rains in southern and central Mexico are often suppressed.
United States
North AmericaIn the United States, El Niño creates a classic dipole: the Pacific jet stream extends eastward, delivering storm after storm and above-normal winter precipitation across California, the Southwest, and the Gulf Coast, while the northern tier and Ohio Valley experience milder, drier winters.