The Flood Risk Map provides a deterministic, multi-variable assessment of flood vulnerability across monitored population centres and sensitive river basins worldwide.
The Three Hydrological Risk Pillars
Raw rainfall forecasts often fail to predict floods because dry soil can absorb significant water, while saturated soil converts light rain into instant flooding. Our engine synthesizes three real-time variables:
- 48-Hour Precipitation Volume: Short-term atmospheric load from numerical weather models.
- Near-Surface Soil Moisture: Volumetric soil water content (0–10 cm depth); values above 50% indicate high saturation.
- River Discharge Ratio: Real-time river flow compared to its 90-day baseline from the Copernicus Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS).
| Risk Tier | Score Range | Physical Meaning & Trigger Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Very High | 75–100% | Multiple strong signals at once: heavy forecast rain on saturated ground and/or rivers far above their recent flow. Check official warnings now and be ready to act. |
| High | 50–74% | Significant rain expected and/or wet soils or rising rivers. Localised flooding is plausible, especially in low-lying areas and along rivers. |
| Moderate | 25–49% | Some rain and moderately wet conditions. Flooding is unlikely to be widespread but drains, streams and flood-prone spots deserve attention. |
| Low | 0–24% | Little forecast rain, drier soils and normal river flow. Flash floods from intense local storms are still possible. |
Current Highest-Risk Urban Centres
| City & Country | Coordinates | Flood Risk Tier | Primary Basin | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi, Kenya | 1.29° S, 36.82° E | MONITORED | Nairobi County | View Live → |
| Mombasa, Kenya | 4.04° S, 39.67° E | MONITORED | Coast Province | View Live → |
| Kisumu, Kenya | 0.09° S, 34.77° E | MONITORED | Kisumu County | View Live → |
| Garissa, Kenya | 0.45° S, 39.65° E | MONITORED | Garissa County | View Live → |
| Nakuru, Kenya | 0.30° S, 36.08° E | MONITORED | Rift Valley | View Live → |
| Eldoret, Kenya | 0.51° N, 35.27° E | MONITORED | Uasin Gishu | View Live → |
| Ruiru, Kenya | 1.14° S, 36.96° E | MONITORED | Kiambu County | View Live → |
| Malindi, Kenya | 3.22° S, 40.12° E | MONITORED | Kilifi County | View Live → |
| Kampala, Uganda | 0.35° N, 32.58° E | MONITORED | Central Region | View Live → |
| Entebbe, Uganda | 0.05° N, 32.46° E | MONITORED | Central Region | View Live → |
| Jinja, Uganda | 0.42° N, 33.20° E | MONITORED | Eastern Region | View Live → |
| Mbale, Uganda | 1.08° N, 34.18° E | MONITORED | Eastern Region | View Live → |
| Gulu, Uganda | 2.77° N, 32.30° E | MONITORED | Northern Region | View Live → |
| Mbarara, Uganda | 0.61° S, 30.65° E | MONITORED | Western Region | View Live → |
| Kasese, Uganda | 0.18° N, 30.08° E | MONITORED | Western Region | View Live → |
Monitored Basin Hotspots
Our automated systems continuously track historically flood-prone river choke points and lake basins:
Ruiru Basin
-1.14°, 36.96°Located in Kiambu County near Nairobi, the Ruiru catchment experiences rapid urban runoff and stream flooding during heavy short rains.
Garissa (Tana River)
-0.45°, 39.65°Major downstream flood monitoring point along Kenya's longest river; historic El Niño crests frequently submerge lowlands.
Budalangi (Nzoia River)
0.13°, 34.02°Infamous flood plain where the Nzoia River enters Lake Victoria; highly vulnerable to prolonged dyke overtopping.
Ahero / Nyando Basin
-0.17°, 34.92°Lowland rice-growing plains in Kisumu County that flood when runoff from Nandi hills meets Lake Victoria backwaters.
Tana River Delta
-2.55°, 40.35°Vast ecological and agricultural wetland delta where upstream flood surges spread out before reaching the Indian Ocean.
Lake Victoria (Central)
-1.00°, 33.00°World's largest tropical lake; water levels rise dramatically during sustained El Niño precipitation seasons.
Beledweyne (Shabelle River)
4.74°, 45.20°Choke point on the Shabelle River near the Ethiopian border where 90% of the town can be inundated during severe Deyr rains.
Bardhere (Juba River)
2.34°, 42.28°Critical flood-monitoring and agricultural bridge point along Somalia's southern riverine artery.
Rufiji Delta
-7.95°, 38.98°Chokwe (Limpopo Basin)
-24.53°, 33.02°Major irrigation heartland in Gaza Province, Mozambique; subject to catastrophic floods in wet years and drought in El Niño.
Tete (Zambezi River)
-16.16°, 33.59°Strategic crossing on the lower Zambezi below Cahora Bassa Dam.
Piura River Valley
-5.19°, -80.63°Historical focal point of coastal El Niño disasters; torrential desert rains overwhelm river capacity and submerge cities.
Safety and Limitations Disclaimer
This assessment is purely informational and designed for situational awareness. It cannot replace official warnings issued by national weather services or local civil protection authorities. Always adhere to emergency directives and evacuation notices.